You’d think the Labour Party was in as dire straits as the Liberal Democrats if you’d swallowed the media’s obsession with UKIP over the last few weeks. Two recent news items say otherwise.
1. Labour predicted to be the largest party at General Election
Rowena Mason and Tom Clark writing in Saturday’s Guardian (26 May 2014) suggest that based on projections from the local election results, Labour are likely to be the largest party in the commons after the general Election next year.
The BBC estimated that Labour would get 322 seats, Conservatives 255, Liberal Democrats 45 and other parties including UKIP 28. However this is four short of the required 326 working majority.
There is a health warning of course in that people’s voting behaviour differs between local and general elections.
2. Former Tory treasurer’s opinion poll suggests comfortable majority for Labour
The Conservative’s former treasurer Lord Ashcroft’s latest opinion poll predicts an Ed Milliband victory next year. It was taken in 26 marginal seats and puts Labour 12 points ahead at 41% and when extrapolated out suggests 83 Conservative marginals will fall.